IEPS, Economic Package, and Investment Uncertainty in Mexico

What You Need to Know

The 2026 Economic Package presents one of the most challenging scenarios for investment in Mexico. Between tax hikes, inflationary pressures, and cuts to strategic sectors, a concerning outlook emerges for both entrepreneurs and investors. Juan José Sierra Álvarez, national president of Coparmex, makes it clear: the increase of the IEPS on products such as soft drinks, tobacco, and video games could hinder private investment and weaken business confidence.

Discover how market uncertainty impacts investments

IEPS Increase: More Pressure, Less Certainty

The announced fiscal measure seeks to boost tax collection, but it could have a counterproductive effect. According to Coparmex, this increase in the Excise Tax on Production and Services shows no clear evidence that it reduces consumption, but it does represent direct pressure on inflation and the end consumer. For businesses, these types of unexpected adjustments create an uncertain environment that inhibits financial planning and delays investment decisions.

An Economic Package with Optimistic Assumptions With a historic spending plan of 10.1 trillion pesos and only 8.7 trillion in projected revenue, the 2026 Economic Package relies on a growing deficit. The official growth forecasts of 1.8% to 2.3% are seen as overly optimistic by the business sector, which demands better conditions of security, rule of law, and transparency in order to operate with confidence.

Cuts in Key Sectors: Health, Education, and Security While spending for Pemex increases, the budget for health (-3.2%) and public security (-17.5%) is reduced—two fundamental pillars for social well-being and attracting investment. Despite a slight 6.4% increase in education, experts consider it insufficient to reverse the accumulated lag in this area.

Impact on Employment and Formality The current fiscal strategy also lacks a clear path to promote formal employment, which has proven to be the most effective way to fight poverty. According to INEGI data, labor income represents 75% of the resources that help people escape poverty, while social programs contribute less than 4%.

Uncertainty for Businesses and Investors The concentration of resources in Pemex and the lack of payments to suppliers generate tension among micro, small, and medium-sized enterprises, which continue to wait for liquidity to operate. In addition, the possibility of new tariffs and a heavier tax burden without broadening the tax base—in a context where informality exceeds 75% in some states—reinforces the perception of instability.

The Solution: Solid Strategies and Stable Markets In this scenario, investors seek environments that offer greater predictability and fiscal balance. Markets such as Europe, with clear regulations and macroeconomic stability, are becoming increasingly attractive for diversifying portfolios and protecting capital.

At FINSOF, we help you make informed decisions in uncertain contexts. Our wealth advisory model is designed so that you can:

• Assess real risks and opportunities in today’s environment.

• Diversify your investments into more stable markets.

• Protect your wealth with personalized strategies.

Fiscal and political uncertainty in Mexico doesn’t have to be a barrier to growing your capital. With FINSOF, you turn volatility into strategy. Write to us and discover the best investment advisory for your future.